Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran's missile launches will likely trigger heightened tensions in the Middle East. Within 3 days, Israel and its allies may respond with increased military presence and air strikes on Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving other countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey within 1 week. The escalation might prompt international condemnation from the UN Security Council, potentially leading to sanctions against Iran. * Israel publicly confirms retaliatory action against Iranian military assets. * Increased air traffic and naval activity in the region. * Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The current situation will likely remain unchanged for a few weeks (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran's missile launches will likely trigger heightened tensions in the Middle East. Within 3 days, Israel and its allies may respond with increased military presence and air strikes on Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving other countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey within 1 week. The escalation might prompt international condemnation from the UN Security Council, potentially leading to sanctions against Iran. * Israel publicly confirms retaliatory action against Iranian military assets. * Increased air traffic and naval activity in the region. * Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The current situation will likely remain unchanged for a few weeks (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran's missile launches will likely trigger heightened tensions in the Middle East. Within 3 days, Israel and its allies may respond with increased military presence and air strikes on Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving other countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey within 1 week. The escalation might prompt international condemnation from the UN Security Council, potentially leading to sanctions against Iran. * Israel publicly confirms retaliatory action against Iranian military assets. * Increased air traffic and naval activity in the region. * Reports of heightened tensions between Iran and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The current situation will likely remain unchanged for a few weeks (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Iran releases footage of missiles launched at Israel

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators