S7/10Natural
Strongest earthquake in nearly 150 years hits off Cuba, shaking Mexico and Florida
A historically strong earthquake struck off Cuba’s northwest coast on Monday, according to official reports, shaking parts of Cuba, Mexico and Florida that are typically not prone to quakes. The US Geological Survey (USGS) measured the quake at a magnitude 6.1 at a shallow depth of 26km (16 miles) and its epicentre 104km west-northwest of Mantua, Cuba, about two to four hours by car from the capital Havana. Monday’s earthquake was unusual for this area of the Caribbean, said Paul Earle, a...
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 40% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage in Cuba, Mexico, and Florida. A surge in international media coverage with heightened focus on potential humanitarian crises.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 44% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage in Cuba, Mexico, and Florida. A surge in international media coverage with heightened focus on potential humanitarian crises.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 16% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage in Cuba, Mexico, and Florida. A surge in international media coverage with heightened focus on potential humanitarian crises.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days