Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches a larger-scale missile attack on Israel's infrastructure and military sites, escalating tensions to a full-blown conflict. Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially nuclear sites. The international community condemns the escalation and calls for de-escalation. * Confirmation indicators: Iran confirms launching a significant number of missiles into Israeli territory, followed by Israel's confirmation of airstrikes on Iranian targets. A major diplomatic crisis ensues at the UN Security Council. * Time horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire holds, with both sides refraining from further escalation and engaging in diplomatic talks. Tensions remain high, but (81% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches a larger-scale missile attack on Israel's infrastructure and military sites, escalating tensions to a full-blown conflict. Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially nuclear sites. The international community condemns the escalation and calls for de-escalation. * Confirmation indicators: Iran confirms launching a significant number of missiles into Israeli territory, followed by Israel's confirmation of airstrikes on Iranian targets. A major diplomatic crisis ensues at the UN Security Council. * Time horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire holds, with both sides refraining from further escalation and engaging in diplomatic talks. Tensions remain high, but (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches a larger-scale missile attack on Israel's infrastructure and military sites, escalating tensions to a full-blown conflict. Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially nuclear sites. The international community condemns the escalation and calls for de-escalation. * Confirmation indicators: Iran confirms launching a significant number of missiles into Israeli territory, followed by Israel's confirmation of airstrikes on Iranian targets. A major diplomatic crisis ensues at the UN Security Council. * Time horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire holds, with both sides refraining from further escalation and engaging in diplomatic talks. Tensions remain high, but (5% model probability, not a guarantee)