S9/10Geopolitical

US-Iran's first round of talks concludes despite Trump threatening strikes

High-level negotiations in Switzerland seeking a permanent end to the Iran war have ended, while technical talks will go on there for the rest of the week. US and Iranian delegation met for high-level talks following the recent signing of a "memorandum of understanding". However, the Iranian temporarily walked out after threats made by US President Donald Trump. Negotiators will seek to resolve some of the thornier issues between the US and Iran such as Tehran's nuclear programme and stockpiles of uranium.

22 Jun 2026, 09:51 UTCSource: France24Original source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация79% model probability

US President Trump issues direct military threats against Iran, escalating tensions beyond diplomatic channels. This could be in the form of a public statement or a series of actions that directly threaten Iranian military assets. Timeline: Within 72 hours following the conclusion of the talks, Trump may issue a threat or announce a retaliatory strike plan against Iran. Effect: The escalation could trigger immediate responses from Iran, pot

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво15% model probability

US President Trump issues direct military threats against Iran, escalating tensions beyond diplomatic channels. This could be in the form of a public statement or a series of actions that directly threaten Iranian military assets. Timeline: Within 72 hours following the conclusion of the talks, Trump may issue a threat or announce a retaliatory strike plan against Iran. Effect: The escalation could trigger immediate responses from Iran, pot

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация6% model probability

US President Trump issues direct military threats against Iran, escalating tensions beyond diplomatic channels. This could be in the form of a public statement or a series of actions that directly threaten Iranian military assets. Timeline: Within 72 hours following the conclusion of the talks, Trump may issue a threat or announce a retaliatory strike plan against Iran. Effect: The escalation could trigger immediate responses from Iran, pot

Horizon: 7–30 days