Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter (82% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

Число погибших в результате атак Израиля на Ливан превысило 3610 человек - Минздрав

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