S9/10Geopolitical

Hegseth insists Iran ceasefire holds as US warns Tehran over shipping

Hegseth insists Iran ceasefire holds as US warns Tehran over shipping US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has brushed aside questions over whether the ceasefire with Iran is holding, even as Washington continues to threaten Tehran over shipping routes. “Of course it’s a ceasefire,” Hegseth told reporters, adding that the US is “negotiating actively”. “Things are happening, shipping is moving through,” he said. “Iran shouldn’t be shooting at it. And when they do, we take care of that as you would expect. But ultimately, we think a deal, a great deal, is likely coming soon.” His comments come as the US tries to present diplomacy as alive while maintaining military pressure on Iran and backing Israel’s escalation in Lebanon,

07 Jun 2026, 17:56 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation77% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased media coverage highlighting heightened tensions, specific instances of Iranian military activity near US
  • allied vessels, and US officials publicly acknowledging the possibility of conflict escalation.
  • Time horizon: 10 to 30 days
Horizon: 10–30 days
B
Status quo17% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased media coverage highlighting heightened tensions, specific instances of Iranian military activity near US
  • allied vessels, and US officials publicly acknowledging the possibility of conflict escalation.
  • Time horizon: 10 to 30 days
Horizon: 10–30 days
C
De-escalation6% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased media coverage highlighting heightened tensions, specific instances of Iranian military activity near US
  • allied vessels, and US officials publicly acknowledging the possibility of conflict escalation.
  • Time horizon: 10 to 30 days
Horizon: 10–30 days