Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts is significantly strengthened and expedited, leading to increased trading activity on registered platforms. This triggers a surge in investor interest in these instruments, potentially driving further development of related financial products and services. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of the new regulations and the rapid adoption of crypto-linked perpetual futures by major market players like hedge funds. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts remains unchanged, leading to a gradual adoption of these instruments by market participants with limited growth in trading activity. * Confirmati (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts is significantly strengthened and expedited, leading to increased trading activity on registered platforms. This triggers a surge in investor interest in these instruments, potentially driving further development of related financial products and services. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of the new regulations and the rapid adoption of crypto-linked perpetual futures by major market players like hedge funds. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts remains unchanged, leading to a gradual adoption of these instruments by market participants with limited growth in trading activity. * Confirmati (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts is significantly strengthened and expedited, leading to increased trading activity on registered platforms. This triggers a surge in investor interest in these instruments, potentially driving further development of related financial products and services. * Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of the new regulations and the rapid adoption of crypto-linked perpetual futures by major market players like hedge funds. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The US regulatory framework for onshore crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts remains unchanged, leading to a gradual adoption of these instruments by market participants with limited growth in trading activity. * Confirmati (20% model probability, not a guarantee)