S5/10Economic

Australian public cooling on Trump’s US while thawing on China, survey finds

Australian trust in the United States has hit a record low, while the public mood towards China has warmed for the fourth year in a row, according to a new opinion poll. In an unprecedented shift, 51 per cent of those surveyed said the country’s relationship with China was more important than that with the US, compared with 45 per cent who said America should take priority. Only 31 per cent of those questioned in the Lowy Institute’s annual poll said they trusted the US to act responsibly in the...

22 Jun 2026, 12:30 UTCSource: South China Morning PostOriginal source

Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).

⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация31% model probability

US-China trade tensions escalate into direct conflict, possibly involving military action or sanctions. This triggers heightened geopolitical instability in the Asia-Pacific region. Confirmation Indicators: US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months

Confirmation indicators

  • US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high
  • ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво51% model probability

US-China trade tensions escalate into direct conflict, possibly involving military action or sanctions. This triggers heightened geopolitical instability in the Asia-Pacific region. Confirmation Indicators: US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months

Confirmation indicators

  • US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high
  • ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация19% model probability

US-China trade tensions escalate into direct conflict, possibly involving military action or sanctions. This triggers heightened geopolitical instability in the Asia-Pacific region. Confirmation Indicators: US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months

Confirmation indicators

  • US Congress approves further economic sanctions against China, followed by a public statement from a high
  • ranking Chinese official threatening retaliation. Time Horizon: 30 days to 6 months
Horizon: 7–30 days