Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's reserve mobilization triggers escalating military actions along borders with West Bank and Jordan. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure or airbases. This escalation leads to a heightened international response from the UN Security Council, leading to sanctions against both countries. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Reports of intensified fighting in the occupied West Bank; 2) Increased military activity and deployment of advanced weaponry by Israel's defense forces; 3) Public statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader declaring a “holy war” on Israel. * Time Horizon: Escalation could unfold within 7-14 days, with further escalation expected in the following weeks if no ceasefire is reached. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Ch (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's reserve mobilization triggers escalating military actions along borders with West Bank and Jordan. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure or airbases. This escalation leads to a heightened international response from the UN Security Council, leading to sanctions against both countries. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Reports of intensified fighting in the occupied West Bank; 2) Increased military activity and deployment of advanced weaponry by Israel's defense forces; 3) Public statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader declaring a “holy war” on Israel. * Time Horizon: Escalation could unfold within 7-14 days, with further escalation expected in the following weeks if no ceasefire is reached. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Ch (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's reserve mobilization triggers escalating military actions along borders with West Bank and Jordan. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure or airbases. This escalation leads to a heightened international response from the UN Security Council, leading to sanctions against both countries. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Reports of intensified fighting in the occupied West Bank; 2) Increased military activity and deployment of advanced weaponry by Israel's defense forces; 3) Public statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader declaring a “holy war” on Israel. * Time Horizon: Escalation could unfold within 7-14 days, with further escalation expected in the following weeks if no ceasefire is reached. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Ch (4% model probability, not a guarantee)