S9/10Geopolitical
Iran Fires Missiles at Israel as Trump Defends Ceasefire
Iran fired several rounds of missiles toward Israel, as President Donald Trump pushed to preserve a faltering ceasefire in the US’s 100-day conflict with Tehran. Bloomberg's Laura Davison breaks down the latest developments. (Source: Bloomberg)
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 82% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding escalation, reports of heightened military activity in the region, and confirmation of US involvement through official statements or actions.
- ◆Time Horizon: Escalation could occur within 72 hours, leading to a prolonged conflict with potential for broader regional instability over the next 3 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 13% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding escalation, reports of heightened military activity in the region, and confirmation of US involvement through official statements or actions.
- ◆Time Horizon: Escalation could occur within 72 hours, leading to a prolonged conflict with potential for broader regional instability over the next 3 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding escalation, reports of heightened military activity in the region, and confirmation of US involvement through official statements or actions.
- ◆Time Horizon: Escalation could occur within 72 hours, leading to a prolonged conflict with potential for broader regional instability over the next 3 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days