S8/10Geopolitical

Iranian delegation refuses to continue talks in Switzerland — news agency

The Iranian side protested US violations of commitments under the memorandum and stressed that negotiations on the nuclear program depend directly on compliance with the signed agreement

21 Jun 2026, 22:45 UTCSource: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация59% model probability

Iran's delegation refuses to continue talks in Switzerland, escalating tensions with the US and potentially leading to sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This could trigger a retaliatory measure from Iran, such as increased military activity or cyberattacks against US interests. The escalation will likely be marked by diplomatic pressure from both sides, but may also lead to increased risk of military action. Confirmation Indicators: Within

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво30% model probability

Iran's delegation refuses to continue talks in Switzerland, escalating tensions with the US and potentially leading to sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This could trigger a retaliatory measure from Iran, such as increased military activity or cyberattacks against US interests. The escalation will likely be marked by diplomatic pressure from both sides, but may also lead to increased risk of military action. Confirmation Indicators: Within

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация11% model probability

Iran's delegation refuses to continue talks in Switzerland, escalating tensions with the US and potentially leading to sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This could trigger a retaliatory measure from Iran, such as increased military activity or cyberattacks against US interests. The escalation will likely be marked by diplomatic pressure from both sides, but may also lead to increased risk of military action. Confirmation Indicators: Within

Horizon: 7–30 days