Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries. (87% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries. (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries. (4% model probability, not a guarantee)