Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Великобритания, Франция и Германия поддержали прямые украинско-российские переговоры: совместное заявление

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