Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within 7 days, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within 7 days, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within 7 days, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Oil prices rise as Iran and Israel trade strikes in defiance of Trump

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators