Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness. (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness. (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness. (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Missiles intercepted over occupied East Jerusalem and West Bank

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators