Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis: Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability * Chain: Following an exchange of missile attacks between Israel and Iran, tensions escalate rapidly. This includes increased military deployments in the region by both sides, heightened rhetoric from political leaders, and potential for cyberattacks. Within a week, regional alliances like the Arab League hold emergency meetings to discuss responses. * Confirmation indicators: Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly calling for retaliation against Israel within 24 hours of the initial attack. A significant increase in Israeli military activity near Iran's borders. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Probability * Chain: The exchange of missile attacks is met with a diplomatic response, including calls for de-escalation from international bodies like the UN and EU. (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis: Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability * Chain: Following an exchange of missile attacks between Israel and Iran, tensions escalate rapidly. This includes increased military deployments in the region by both sides, heightened rhetoric from political leaders, and potential for cyberattacks. Within a week, regional alliances like the Arab League hold emergency meetings to discuss responses. * Confirmation indicators: Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly calling for retaliation against Israel within 24 hours of the initial attack. A significant increase in Israeli military activity near Iran's borders. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Probability * Chain: The exchange of missile attacks is met with a diplomatic response, including calls for de-escalation from international bodies like the UN and EU. (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis: Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability * Chain: Following an exchange of missile attacks between Israel and Iran, tensions escalate rapidly. This includes increased military deployments in the region by both sides, heightened rhetoric from political leaders, and potential for cyberattacks. Within a week, regional alliances like the Arab League hold emergency meetings to discuss responses. * Confirmation indicators: Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly calling for retaliation against Israel within 24 hours of the initial attack. A significant increase in Israeli military activity near Iran's borders. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Probability * Chain: The exchange of missile attacks is met with a diplomatic response, including calls for de-escalation from international bodies like the UN and EU. (7% model probability, not a guarantee)