S8/10Geopolitical

Deterring Russia Beneath the Waves: Securing NATO’s Critical Undersea Infrastructure

What would happen if you woke up one morning and the internet was gone — not from a software glitch, but because someone had simply cut the wire?Threats to critical undersea infrastructure are rapidly escalating. In 2023, the Balticonnector pipeline and several Baltic data cables were damaged. A year later, four Red Sea cables were cut, disrupting a quarter of data traffic between Asia and Europe, with further incidents across the Baltic. In total, between January 2024 and July 2025, roughly 44 incidents of cable damage were recorded. Not all were deliberate, but Russia’s activity has grown brazen. In 2025, The post Deterring Russia Beneath the Waves: Securing NATO’s Critical Undersea Infrastructure appeared first on War on the Rocks .

01 Jun 2026, 07:15 UTCSource: War on the RocksOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация66% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days