Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran (87% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran (4% model probability, not a guarantee)