Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's negotiator issues a formal declaration of war against Israel and US allies within 72 hours. This triggers retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israeli targets, including military bases and infrastructure in Israel. The US responds with sanctions on Iranian financial institutions, followed by the imposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports. * An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war. * Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours. * Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US-controlled shipping lanes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Lebanese government negotiates with both Israel and Iran, seeking a peaceful resolution through mediation from the UN or other international bodies. The US contin (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's negotiator issues a formal declaration of war against Israel and US allies within 72 hours. This triggers retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israeli targets, including military bases and infrastructure in Israel. The US responds with sanctions on Iranian financial institutions, followed by the imposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports. * An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war. * Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours. * Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US-controlled shipping lanes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Lebanese government negotiates with both Israel and Iran, seeking a peaceful resolution through mediation from the UN or other international bodies. The US contin (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's negotiator issues a formal declaration of war against Israel and US allies within 72 hours. This triggers retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israeli targets, including military bases and infrastructure in Israel. The US responds with sanctions on Iranian financial institutions, followed by the imposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports. * An official statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard announcing war. * Confirmation of airstrikes against Israeli targets within 72 hours. * Increased activity of Iranian naval forces near US-controlled shipping lanes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Lebanese government negotiates with both Israel and Iran, seeking a peaceful resolution through mediation from the UN or other international bodies. The US contin (5% model probability, not a guarantee)