S5/10Economic

Interest rates expected to be held by Bank of England

The Bank last cut interest rates in December but upheaval in the Middle East has stalled any further reductions.

17 Jun 2026, 23:01 UTCSource: BBC BusinessOriginal source
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация26% model probability

The Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates leads to increased market volatility as investors anticipate further economic uncertainty. This could trigger a sell-off in riskier assets, particularly emerging markets and stocks. The Middle East conflict escalates, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for renewed sanctions or military action, impacting global oil prices and supply chains. Confirmation indicators:

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво54% model probability

The Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates leads to increased market volatility as investors anticipate further economic uncertainty. This could trigger a sell-off in riskier assets, particularly emerging markets and stocks. The Middle East conflict escalates, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for renewed sanctions or military action, impacting global oil prices and supply chains. Confirmation indicators:

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация20% model probability

The Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates leads to increased market volatility as investors anticipate further economic uncertainty. This could trigger a sell-off in riskier assets, particularly emerging markets and stocks. The Middle East conflict escalates, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for renewed sanctions or military action, impacting global oil prices and supply chains. Confirmation indicators:

Horizon: 7–30 days