Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's positive talks with US envoys lead to increased military aid from the US and NATO allies to Ukraine. Russia responds by escalating its offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with Belarus. This escalation could trigger a renewed wave of international sanctions against Russia. * Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours. * Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours. * Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The current diplomatic efforts continue, (60% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's positive talks with US envoys lead to increased military aid from the US and NATO allies to Ukraine. Russia responds by escalating its offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with Belarus. This escalation could trigger a renewed wave of international sanctions against Russia. * Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours. * Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours. * Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The current diplomatic efforts continue, (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's positive talks with US envoys lead to increased military aid from the US and NATO allies to Ukraine. Russia responds by escalating its offensive in eastern Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with Belarus. This escalation could trigger a renewed wave of international sanctions against Russia. * Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours. * Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours. * Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The current diplomatic efforts continue, (11% model probability, not a guarantee)