Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Houthis' declaration of ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran announces support for Houthi actions, potentially escalating military presence in Yemen or even directly engaging with Israel through proxy forces. This could lead to a series of retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iranian targets in the region, including potential attacks on key shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. * Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week. * Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches). * Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario:* (90% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Houthis' declaration of ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran announces support for Houthi actions, potentially escalating military presence in Yemen or even directly engaging with Israel through proxy forces. This could lead to a series of retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iranian targets in the region, including potential attacks on key shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. * Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week. * Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches). * Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario:* (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Houthis' declaration of ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran announces support for Houthi actions, potentially escalating military presence in Yemen or even directly engaging with Israel through proxy forces. This could lead to a series of retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iranian targets in the region, including potential attacks on key shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. * Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week. * Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches). * Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario:* (4% model probability, not a guarantee)