Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * Time horizon: Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Israeli military's announcement about the stri (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * Time horizon: Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Israeli military's announcement about the stri (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * Time horizon: Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Israeli military's announcement about the stri (7% model probability, not a guarantee)