Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Asian central banks continue aggressive rate hikes, leading to increased capital outflows from emerging markets and further currency depreciation. This triggers a global risk-off sentiment, pushing investors towards safe haven assets like US Treasuries. * Confirmation indicators: Continued rapid increases in Asian interest rates, significant widening of EM currency spreads against USD, and sharp decline in global equity markets. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Asian central banks maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing inflation concerns with the need for economic stability. This leads to gradual stabilization of currencies and reduced volatility in global markets. * Confirmation indicators: Central bank statements indicating continu (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Asian central banks continue aggressive rate hikes, leading to increased capital outflows from emerging markets and further currency depreciation. This triggers a global risk-off sentiment, pushing investors towards safe haven assets like US Treasuries. * Confirmation indicators: Continued rapid increases in Asian interest rates, significant widening of EM currency spreads against USD, and sharp decline in global equity markets. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Asian central banks maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing inflation concerns with the need for economic stability. This leads to gradual stabilization of currencies and reduced volatility in global markets. * Confirmation indicators: Central bank statements indicating continu (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Asian central banks continue aggressive rate hikes, leading to increased capital outflows from emerging markets and further currency depreciation. This triggers a global risk-off sentiment, pushing investors towards safe haven assets like US Treasuries. * Confirmation indicators: Continued rapid increases in Asian interest rates, significant widening of EM currency spreads against USD, and sharp decline in global equity markets. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Asian central banks maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing inflation concerns with the need for economic stability. This leads to gradual stabilization of currencies and reduced volatility in global markets. * Confirmation indicators: Central bank statements indicating continu (20% model probability, not a guarantee)