Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt (57% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Treasuries Drop as Jobs Data, Iran Tensions Fuel Rate Hike Bets

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators