Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's limited strikes on Beirut trigger retaliatory actions by Hezbollah in Lebanon, escalating tensions and potentially leading to broader conflict. Israel may increase military presence along its border with Lebanon. Hezbollah could launch targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets within Lebanon. This escalation could lead to a regional arms race and increased international involvement. * Increased activity on social media from both Lebanese and Israeli sources indicating heightened tensions. * Reports of Hezbollah launching projectiles into Israel, potentially targeting civilian areas. * Confirmation of Israeli military deployment along the border with Lebanon. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The limited strikes on Beirut remain isol (77% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's limited strikes on Beirut trigger retaliatory actions by Hezbollah in Lebanon, escalating tensions and potentially leading to broader conflict. Israel may increase military presence along its border with Lebanon. Hezbollah could launch targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets within Lebanon. This escalation could lead to a regional arms race and increased international involvement. * Increased activity on social media from both Lebanese and Israeli sources indicating heightened tensions. * Reports of Hezbollah launching projectiles into Israel, potentially targeting civilian areas. * Confirmation of Israeli military deployment along the border with Lebanon. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The limited strikes on Beirut remain isol (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Israel's limited strikes on Beirut trigger retaliatory actions by Hezbollah in Lebanon, escalating tensions and potentially leading to broader conflict. Israel may increase military presence along its border with Lebanon. Hezbollah could launch targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets within Lebanon. This escalation could lead to a regional arms race and increased international involvement. * Increased activity on social media from both Lebanese and Israeli sources indicating heightened tensions. * Reports of Hezbollah launching projectiles into Israel, potentially targeting civilian areas. * Confirmation of Israeli military deployment along the border with Lebanon. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The limited strikes on Beirut remain isol (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Israel attacks Beirut days after Trump’s showdown with Netanyahu

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators