Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to increased tensions in the region. Tensions escalate into direct military actions or proxy conflicts within the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leadership on escalating conflict. A spike in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz by regional powers. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations between the US and Iran continue, with both sides showing willingness to reach a deal. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed but ultimately occurs in the coming months. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from the US and Iranian governments outlining a framework for negotiations. A renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran. * Time (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to increased tensions in the region. Tensions escalate into direct military actions or proxy conflicts within the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leadership on escalating conflict. A spike in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz by regional powers. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations between the US and Iran continue, with both sides showing willingness to reach a deal. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed but ultimately occurs in the coming months. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from the US and Iranian governments outlining a framework for negotiations. A renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran. * Time (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to increased tensions in the region. Tensions escalate into direct military actions or proxy conflicts within the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leadership on escalating conflict. A spike in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz by regional powers. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Negotiations between the US and Iran continue, with both sides showing willingness to reach a deal. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed but ultimately occurs in the coming months. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from the US and Iranian governments outlining a framework for negotiations. A renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran. * Time (21% model probability, not a guarantee)