Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T (69% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T (8% model probability, not a guarantee)