S8/10Geopolitical
Iran to strike US, Israeli oil, gas sites if attacks continue — agency
According to Fars, the list of potential targets will particularly include facilities belonging to US oil and gas companies in the Middle East
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 79% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Public statements from US officials confirming specific targets and a credible threat of retaliation. Iranian government releases a list of targeted facilities with clear timelines for potential strikes.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo— 15% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Public statements from US officials confirming specific targets and a credible threat of retaliation. Iranian government releases a list of targeted facilities with clear timelines for potential strikes.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Public statements from US officials confirming specific targets and a credible threat of retaliation. Iranian government releases a list of targeted facilities with clear timelines for potential strikes.
Horizon: 10–20 days