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Adversaries do not need to breach the Pentagon’s systems: They only need to harvest the logic of the publicly released frontier AI models that underpin them. This is a defining risk as the Department of Defense pivots to an “AI-first” warfighting machine. In this new context, military predominance is a derivative of AI model supremacy. From Project Maven’s intelligence fusion to the high-velocity sensor-to-shooter loops of Anduril’s Lattice, the Defense Department’s most advanced systems are tethered to the frontier models forged by tech heavyweights like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. As long as these firms hold the high ground in the The post The Pentagon’s AI Edge Is Being Distilled Away appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

At the Port of Beirut, the new scanners did exactly what they were built to do. They saw the lithium batteries. They saw the drone propellers. They saw the fiber optic cable. They matched the scans against the paperwork, found no obvious deception, and cleared the cargo.That was the problem.The threat was not hidden in any single container. It was spread across many of them, arriving over weeks, through different vessels, different companies, and different bills of lading. The AI could identify what each shipment contained, but couldn’t figure out what those shipments, taken together, might be building toward.As a The post What Beirut’s Port Scanners Miss About Militant Supply Chains appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Rarely a week passes without a new story about Russia’s shadow fleet. Tankers catch fire in the Mediterranean, are added to sanctions lists, or are boarded while passing through European waters. But the bigger story is not the vessels that are caught, but those that aren’t — ships moving between registries, ports, shell companies, and service providers that obscure their ties to Russia while keeping a sanctioned state afloat. The vessels that do get sanctioned are the visible tip of a larger scheme that North Korea spent years running, and Russia has refined at scale.Shadow fleets are typically studied in The post From Pyongyang to Primorsk: When Sanctions Evasion Becomes System Design appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

The next war over Taiwan may be deterred not by aircraft carriers or nuclear arsenals, but by a Dutch lithography machine. ASML, headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is the sole manufacturer of the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems required to produce the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without its machines, the most sophisticated foundries on earth — including those of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) — cannot operate. This fact should be at the center of how the United States thinks about deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Currently, it is not.The conventional wisdom holds that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry acts as a “silicon The post The Chain of Peace: Do Supply Chain Chokepoints Deter War? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

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A few months ago, I attended a panel discussion for a wargame simulating rapid industrial mobilization for armed conflict. Conducted by a leading university, with teams composed of former senior defense officials, the game probed how government and industry collaboration would play out given minimal coordination before the onset of a crisis. On the panel, the defense leaders confessed how infrequently they engaged with industry in real life to plan for a national emergency. This declared lack of public-private planning for large-scale conflict matches what I’ve experienced as a defense planner and wargame developer: Outside of rhetorical claims at annual The post Wargaming for Improved Acquisition: What Does It Take? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***Iran Hostilities have increased notably in the last few days, effectively ending the U.S.-Iranian truce that had somewhat held since April. At the start of June, fighting further intensified between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon, complicating U.S.-Iranian negotiations, as Iran has insisted on linking U.S.-Iranian talks with an end to Israeli actions against Hizballah. The fighting in Lebanon led to Israel and Iran trading direct strikes on June 7. Then, on June 8, Iran reportedly The post Strike, Counterstrike, Repeat appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Missiles, drones, and maritime disruptions do not stop at national borders. Gulf defense architecture still too often waits for national permission to act. The Gulf Cooperation Council has spent decades building defense institutions, diplomatic forums, and a language of indivisible Gulf security. Recent crises in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the airspace above the Gulf have exposed a harder test: whether those institutions can move at crisis speed when a missile salvo, drone attack, or maritime disruption gives the region minutes or hours, not days, to respond.The Gulf has no shortage of capability. The region has advanced The post The Gulf Arab States Need a Shield Built for Limited Trust appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In early March, French President Emmanuel Macron stood at a windswept submarine base on the Breton coast and quietly buried four decades of French nuclear orthodoxy. The arsenal would grow. The numbers would be hidden. And for the first time, nuclear weapons that France built to defend Paris might one day be deployed to protect Berlin.Three simultaneous shifts — an increase of nuclear warheads; an end to transparency over the size of the force de frappe; and the launch of “advanced deterrence,” a framework offering European partners strategic dialogues, invitations to French nuclear exercises, and the potential forward basing of The post Macron’s Nuclear Gamble: Building a European Deterrent Faster Than French Politics Can Tear Down appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

War is a brutal driver of medical innovation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced clinicians and commanders alike to confront a hard truth: Survival depends not only on tactics and technology, but on the ability to deliver advanced care under fire, evacuate and resuscitate the wounded, and preserve fighting strength despite repeated attacks on healthcare systems.Ukraine’s experience has reshaped combat medicine through necessity, resilience, and improvisation. The central question is no longer whether NATO can observe these lessons, but whether it can build a system bold enough to capture, test, scale, and field them at wartime speed. The NATO The post Good Medicine Is Combat Power: Clinical Innovation and the Lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian War appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In 2024, Emilian Kavalski and Claris Diaz argued in “Beyond TikTok – The National Security Risks of Chinese Agricultural Drones” that the national debate over foreign social media platforms risked becoming too narrow, potentially causing Washington to overlook other foreign technologies embedded in critical systems. Two years later, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: MB-one via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2024 article, you argued that TikTok’s data collection risks were overhyped and that fixating on them distracted the United States from more serious Chinese technology threats, like agricultural drones. Two years and several TikTok ban cycles later, has your view The post China’s Farm Drones: A Trojan Horse Washington Overlooks appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Iran’s threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28 — effectively closed the strait, sending economic shockwaves around the world. As part of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, Iran has eased restrictions, and shipping traffic has picked up in recent days — albeit well below pre-war levels.Whatever the outcome of negotiations, Iran has clearly demonstrated its ability to shut down the strait. It could happen again. That reality significantly increases incentives for many countries to reduce their reliance on the strait. We asked five The post Adapting to Uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Wars rarely end in a single act of diplomacy. More often, they pass through a succession of ceasefires, frameworks, understandings, as well as provisional and even secret arrangements before anyone can determine whether peace is actually at hand. The Trump administration’s memorandum with Iran is best understood in those terms. In both form and logic, it recalls an earlier American effort to negotiate an exit from an unpopular conflict: the Paris Peace Accords of 1973.The four primary parties to the Vietnam War (1965 to 1975) — the United States, South Vietnam, North Vietnam, and the Provisional Revolutionary Government of the The post From Vietnam to Iran: Wartime Diplomacy and Secret Deals appeared first on War on the Rocks .

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The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is the next generation of American nuclear deterrence. Twelve of these boats will replace the aging Ohio-class fleet, entering service over the 2030s and 2040s, each carrying 16 Trident IIs and driven by a ghost-quiet electric motor that renders them acoustically invisible to any adversary. What makes all of that possible — the propulsion, the stealth, the strike precision — depends almost entirely on rare earths refined in China. This is perhaps the Navy’s most consequential and least discussed vulnerability.The dependency runs through every layer of the capability stack. The sub’s permanent magnet motor requires The post The U.S. Navy’s Subsea Rare Earth Vulnerability appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

During the Cold War, Europe kept asking whether Washington would risk an American city to save a European one. It was an impolite question, but a useful one, which is why it never quite left the room. It has now packed its bags and moved east. Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron created quite a stir with an important speech on French nuclear weapons policy. Under what he called a new path of dissuasion avancée, or “forward deterrence,” he declared that just as French strategic submarines “dilute naturally in the oceans, guaranteeing a permanent-strike capability,” so also now will The post A New Force Posture Concept for Europeanizing Extended Nuclear Deterrence appeared first on War on the Rocks .

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What can leaders do about a transnational organization that is a militia, a political party, a social services network, and a smuggling operation at the same time — and one that has resisted various dialogues and survived repeated attacks?American, Lebanese, and other leaders should recognize Hizballah’s hybrid, transnational nature and grapple with the unique challenges the organization creates. Otherwise, they will fail to resolve the Hizballah predicament while creating conditions for ineffective agreements, new wars, and squandered opportunities in the Levant.Meeting openly for the first time in decades, Lebanese and Israeli representatives have negotiated on security and political tracks while The post The Hizballah Predicament: Why An Integrated Approach Is Necessary appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

President Zelenskyy says Ukraine is expanding its long-range drone campaign with new strikes deep inside Russia.

geopolitical · geopolitical

Thousands of people from other African countries have left South Africa ahead of Tuesday's deadline set by anti-migrant groups.

geopolitical · geopolitical

Airlines told to avoid Iraq and Lebanon airspace The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has warned airlines against using flight routes over Iraq and Lebanon, citing uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire and the risk of rapid escalation. EASA urged commercial airlines to remain cautious when flying across the Middle East. The agency said it had extended its conflict-zone advisory for the region until July 8, after previously keeping the warning in place until 1 July.

geopolitical · geopolitical

A woman was injured in an overnight Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. She is receiving medical treatment.

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Ukraine repelled a large-scale Russian attack overnight, downing 130 drones and a Kh-59 missile. Information on damage and casualties is still being confirmed.

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Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv Oblast on 30 June and 1 July left eight people injured, with houses and cars damaged.

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Two people were injured in a Russian missile strike on a business in Poltava Oblast on 1 July, the regional authorities said.

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Islamabad has warned that any attempt by India to deprive Pakistan of its share of water under the Indus Waters Treaty would amount to the “weaponisation of water” and could have serious consequences for regional peace and security. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and other government officials made the remarks at an international seminar on the 1960 World Bank – brokered treaty, which governs the sharing of water from the Indus River system between the nuclear-armed neighbours. The treaty has come...

geopolitical · geopolitical

Giant portraits of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s late supreme leader killed in US-Israeli air strikes, have been hung from Tehran’s Grand Mosalla as workers raced to prepare for his grand funeral ceremony. His funeral, initially delayed at the height of the Middle East war, will take place as Iran and the United States observe a fragile ceasefire after signing a preliminary deal to halt the conflict. Khamenei, a spiritual figure for many Shias, was killed aged 86 at his compound in the centre...

geopolitical

Aid workers estimate as many as 300,000 people are fleeing advances by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, which has taken two strategic towns on the approaches to Goma over the past several days.

geopolitical

The president, calling the heavily bombed enclave “a demolition site,” proposed relocating Palestinians temporarily or long-term, a move rejected by Arab countries since the war began.

geopolitical · geopolitical

The IRGC said the weekend US strikes violated the framework deal and warned that violating vessels would face a "crushing response," as Euronews journalists in Doha observed US refuelling aircraft taking off for Hormuz in the same formation as the previous night's strikes.

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Pakistan carried out airstrikes overnight in eastern Afghanistan, Islamabad said on Monday, adding its operations had targeted militants as the Afghan government reported dozens of civilian casualties.

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As missiles threatened the Gulf and residents stayed indoors, delivery drivers kept delivering food and medicine across Doha, with many dubbing them heroes.

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After months-long delays, Tehran is in the midst of organising a six-day, multi-city funeral for late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid tight security and fragile US-Iran talks over Hormuz, nuclear and sanctions issues.