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geopolitical··severity 6

Зеленский превращает терроризм в идеологию своей страны – российский депутат

"Зеленский несет персональную ответственность за теракты, которые приводят к гибели мирных граждан", - заявил Вячеслав Володин.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's rhetoric regarding "terrorism" escalates into direct attacks on Russian infrastructure and personnel in Ukraine, specifically targeting military installations and key transportation hubs. This escalation is confirmed by increased reports of Ukrainian military strikes on Russia-controlled territory, including the deployment of long-range artillery and missile systems. The conflict intensifies with a potential for a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, possibly involving NATO intervention. * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges). * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine. * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's rhetoric regarding "terrorism" escalates into direct attacks on Russian infrastructure and personnel in Ukraine, specifically targeting military installations and key transportation hubs. This escalation is confirmed by increased reports of Ukrainian military strikes on Russia-controlled territory, including the deployment of long-range artillery and missile systems. The conflict intensifies with a potential for a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, possibly involving NATO intervention. * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges). * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine. * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's rhetoric regarding "terrorism" escalates into direct attacks on Russian infrastructure and personnel in Ukraine, specifically targeting military installations and key transportation hubs. This escalation is confirmed by increased reports of Ukrainian military strikes on Russia-controlled territory, including the deployment of long-range artillery and missile systems. The conflict intensifies with a potential for a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, possibly involving NATO intervention. * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges). * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine. * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased frequency of reported attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., railway lines, bridges)., * Confirmation from independent sources of increased military activity near the border of Russia and Ukraine., * Declarations from NATO members regarding potential involveme

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