100-й день войны в Иране: США и Иран снова совершают торговые атаки, усиливая напряженность

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US shoots down Iranian drones over Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia within 48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure. This triggers a rapid escalation response from the US, including potential airstrikes on Iranian targets. The international community calls for de-escalation but fails to achieve a consensus. **Time Horizon:** 7 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation following the incident. The

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US shoots down Iranian drones over Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia within 48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure. This triggers a rapid escalation response from the US, including potential airstrikes on Iranian targets. The international community calls for de-escalation but fails to achieve a consensus. **Time Horizon:** 7 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation following the incident. The

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US shoots down Iranian drones over Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia within 48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure. This triggers a rapid escalation response from the US, including potential airstrikes on Iranian targets. The international community calls for de-escalation but fails to achieve a consensus. **Time Horizon:** 7 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation following the incident. The