100 Tage Иран - Криг: Wer bis jetzt gewinnt - und we verliert

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran's escalation of military activities near contested areas in the Persian Gulf leads to heightened tensions with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel, who respond with increased military presence or support for proxy groups. This triggers a series of diplomatic failures as negotiations stall, leading to an increase in rhetoric and threats from both sides. **Confirmation indicators:** Iran's deployment of advanced weaponry near contested areas, escalating rhetoric by Iranian officials targeting Western countries, and a surge in military exercises by regional powers with increased joint patrols. **Time horizon:** 60-90 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the West continue, with both sides engaging in limited engagement throu

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran's escalation of military activities near contested areas in the Persian Gulf leads to heightened tensions with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel, who respond with increased military presence or support for proxy groups. This triggers a series of diplomatic failures as negotiations stall, leading to an increase in rhetoric and threats from both sides. **Confirmation indicators:** Iran's deployment of advanced weaponry near contested areas, escalating rhetoric by Iranian officials targeting Western countries, and a surge in military exercises by regional powers with increased joint patrols. **Time horizon:** 60-90 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the West continue, with both sides engaging in limited engagement throu

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran's escalation of military activities near contested areas in the Persian Gulf leads to heightened tensions with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel, who respond with increased military presence or support for proxy groups. This triggers a series of diplomatic failures as negotiations stall, leading to an increase in rhetoric and threats from both sides. **Confirmation indicators:** Iran's deployment of advanced weaponry near contested areas, escalating rhetoric by Iranian officials targeting Western countries, and a surge in military exercises by regional powers with increased joint patrols. **Time horizon:** 60-90 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the West continue, with both sides engaging in limited engagement throu