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Парламентские выборы в Армении – голосование за «геополитическое будущее» страны

Армяне проголосовали в воскресенье на парламентских выборах, которые рассматриваются как проверка усилий правительства по заключению мирного соглашения после сокрушительного военного поражения Азербайджана три года назад. «На самом деле это голосование по геополитическому будущему Армении и ее связям с Россией», — заявил в своем анализе корреспондент FRANCE 24 Филип Терле. Он указал на отход Армении от России, тенденцию, которая восходит к ее поражению от Азербайджана и была ускорена войной на Украине, которая отвлекла внимание России на другие регионы.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** **Chain:** Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** **Chain:** Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage of heightened tension along the Armenian, Azerbaijani border. A public statement from Azerbaijani President Aliyev expressing readiness for conflict.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** **Chain:** Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** **Chain:** Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage of heightened tension along the Armenian, Azerbaijani border. A public statement from Azerbaijani President Aliyev expressing readiness for conflict.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** **Chain:** Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** **Chain:** Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage of heightened tension along the Armenian, Azerbaijani border. A public statement from Azerbaijani President Aliyev expressing readiness for conflict.

Первичный источник: France24

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