Пакистанский Накви посетил Иран со «специальным письмом» для верховного лидера

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei responds to Naqvi's letter with public statements condemning US-Iranian tensions, escalating rhetoric and increasing military drills on the border. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran and the US, including increased sanctions by both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** Khamenei publishes a statement denouncing US actions, followed by Iranian officials announcing an increase in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The diplomatic efforts continue with increased communication channels between Iran and the US, mediated by Pakistan. However, tensions remain high, with both sides maintaining a strong stance on their positions. * **Confirmation indicators:** A series

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei responds to Naqvi's letter with public statements condemning US-Iranian tensions, escalating rhetoric and increasing military drills on the border. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran and the US, including increased sanctions by both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** Khamenei publishes a statement denouncing US actions, followed by Iranian officials announcing an increase in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The diplomatic efforts continue with increased communication channels between Iran and the US, mediated by Pakistan. However, tensions remain high, with both sides maintaining a strong stance on their positions. * **Confirmation indicators:** A series

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei responds to Naqvi's letter with public statements condemning US-Iranian tensions, escalating rhetoric and increasing military drills on the border. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran and the US, including increased sanctions by both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** Khamenei publishes a statement denouncing US actions, followed by Iranian officials announcing an increase in military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The diplomatic efforts continue with increased communication channels between Iran and the US, mediated by Pakistan. However, tensions remain high, with both sides maintaining a strong stance on their positions. * **Confirmation indicators:** A series