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geopolitical··severity 6

Северная Корея заявляет, что ее ядерная программа «необратима» накануне визита китайского лидера

Северная Корея заявила в воскресенье, что ее программа создания ядерного оружия «необратима», бросив вызов усилиям США по денуклеаризации за день до визита президента Китая Си Цзиньпина. После встречи Дональда Трампа с Си Цзиньпином в прошлом месяце Соединенные Штаты заявили, что оба лидера разделяют цель денуклеаризации Корейского полуострова, хотя в заявлении Китая этот вопрос не упоминается. Но Ким Ё Чжон, сестра северокорейского лидера Ким Чен Ына, назвала эти комментарии «ложной информацией» и...

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** North Korea's statement triggers heightened tensions with increased military exercises and rhetoric from both sides. The US responds with sanctions and diplomatic pressure, potentially escalating to a joint military exercise in the region. This could lead to heightened risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula within 1-2 weeks. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long-range missiles. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Chinese leadership avoids directly addressing the issue of denuclearization in their statement regarding Xi’s visit with North Korea. However

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long, range missiles., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** North Korea's statement triggers heightened tensions with increased military exercises and rhetoric from both sides. The US responds with sanctions and diplomatic pressure, potentially escalating to a joint military exercise in the region. This could lead to heightened risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula within 1-2 weeks. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long-range missiles. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Chinese leadership avoids directly addressing the issue of denuclearization in their statement regarding Xi’s visit with North Korea. However

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long, range missiles., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** North Korea's statement triggers heightened tensions with increased military exercises and rhetoric from both sides. The US responds with sanctions and diplomatic pressure, potentially escalating to a joint military exercise in the region. This could lead to heightened risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula within 1-2 weeks. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long-range missiles. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Chinese leadership avoids directly addressing the issue of denuclearization in their statement regarding Xi’s visit with North Korea. However

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased military activity near the DMZ (e.g., increased surveillance aircraft or missile tests), public statements from US officials expressing concern and potential for escalation, North Korea's deployment of additional long, range missiles., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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