Иран запускает ракеты по Израилю в результате первой такой бомбардировки после прекращения огня в апреле

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire