На Западе пришли в ярость из - за слов экс - премьера Великобритании о Путине

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ex-PM Johnson's inflammatory remarks regarding Putin lead to a sharp increase in diplomatic tensions between the UK and Russia. This escalates into a public statement from the Russian government condemning Johnson's comments, followed by an official warning of potential retaliatory actions. The escalation could trigger sanctions discussions within the EU and NATO. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements denouncing Johnson’s remarks by Russian officials, followed by joint statements from the EU/NATO condemning the UK's stance. * **Time horizon:** Within two weeks, escalating into a diplomatic crisis with potential for increased military activity in the coming months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The situation remains largely unchanged. Diplomatic channels remain open between the UK and

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ex-PM Johnson's inflammatory remarks regarding Putin lead to a sharp increase in diplomatic tensions between the UK and Russia. This escalates into a public statement from the Russian government condemning Johnson's comments, followed by an official warning of potential retaliatory actions. The escalation could trigger sanctions discussions within the EU and NATO. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements denouncing Johnson’s remarks by Russian officials, followed by joint statements from the EU/NATO condemning the UK's stance. * **Time horizon:** Within two weeks, escalating into a diplomatic crisis with potential for increased military activity in the coming months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The situation remains largely unchanged. Diplomatic channels remain open between the UK and

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ex-PM Johnson's inflammatory remarks regarding Putin lead to a sharp increase in diplomatic tensions between the UK and Russia. This escalates into a public statement from the Russian government condemning Johnson's comments, followed by an official warning of potential retaliatory actions. The escalation could trigger sanctions discussions within the EU and NATO. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements denouncing Johnson’s remarks by Russian officials, followed by joint statements from the EU/NATO condemning the UK's stance. * **Time horizon:** Within two weeks, escalating into a diplomatic crisis with potential for increased military activity in the coming months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The situation remains largely unchanged. Diplomatic channels remain open between the UK and