Украинская армия уничтожила наемников, сдавшихся российским военным

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russian military actions escalate to target Ukrainian drones and personnel involved in the surrender operation. This could involve increased shelling or airstrikes, targeting specific locations where Ukrainian forces are present. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of air strikes near areas with surrendered mercenaries, a noticeable increase in military activity on the border between Russia and Ukraine. * **Time horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident leads to diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine, focused on de-escalation and maintaining a stable ceasefire. This could involve increased communication channels and negotiations for prisoner exchange. * **Confirmation indicators:** A formal statement from the UN or an international body expressing c

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russian military actions escalate to target Ukrainian drones and personnel involved in the surrender operation. This could involve increased shelling or airstrikes, targeting specific locations where Ukrainian forces are present. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of air strikes near areas with surrendered mercenaries, a noticeable increase in military activity on the border between Russia and Ukraine. * **Time horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident leads to diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine, focused on de-escalation and maintaining a stable ceasefire. This could involve increased communication channels and negotiations for prisoner exchange. * **Confirmation indicators:** A formal statement from the UN or an international body expressing c

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russian military actions escalate to target Ukrainian drones and personnel involved in the surrender operation. This could involve increased shelling or airstrikes, targeting specific locations where Ukrainian forces are present. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of air strikes near areas with surrendered mercenaries, a noticeable increase in military activity on the border between Russia and Ukraine. * **Time horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident leads to diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine, focused on de-escalation and maintaining a stable ceasefire. This could involve increased communication channels and negotiations for prisoner exchange. * **Confirmation indicators:** A formal statement from the UN or an international body expressing c