Иран запустил ракеты по Израилю — это первая бомбардировка после хрупкого прекращения огня
Сирены воздушной тревоги прозвучали в Израиле в воскресенье вечером, когда его военные работали над перехватом заграждений приближающихся иранских ракет впервые с тех пор, как в начале апреля вступило в силу хрупкое прекращение огня. Иранская ракетная атака была ответом на смертоносные израильские удары по южным пригородам Бейрута ранее в воскресенье, поскольку взаимные атаки осложнили посреднические усилия по прекращению войны.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile barrage escalates into a broader conflict with Israel, potentially involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This could lead to increased military activity on both sides, including air strikes, ground incursions, and the deployment of additional forces. The international community may impose sanctions or call for diplomatic intervention, but these efforts are likely to be met with resistance from involved parties. * Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure within a week. * Hezbollah announces increased military activity in Lebanon, including the deployment of long-range missiles, within 3 days. * International condemnation and sanctions by major powers (US, EU) within 7 days. ## Scenario B (S
Status Quo
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile barrage escalates into a broader conflict with Israel, potentially involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This could lead to increased military activity on both sides, including air strikes, ground incursions, and the deployment of additional forces. The international community may impose sanctions or call for diplomatic intervention, but these efforts are likely to be met with resistance from involved parties. * Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure within a week. * Hezbollah announces increased military activity in Lebanon, including the deployment of long-range missiles, within 3 days. * International condemnation and sanctions by major powers (US, EU) within 7 days. ## Scenario B (S
De-escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile barrage escalates into a broader conflict with Israel, potentially involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This could lead to increased military activity on both sides, including air strikes, ground incursions, and the deployment of additional forces. The international community may impose sanctions or call for diplomatic intervention, but these efforts are likely to be met with resistance from involved parties. * Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure within a week. * Hezbollah announces increased military activity in Lebanon, including the deployment of long-range missiles, within 3 days. * International condemnation and sanctions by major powers (US, EU) within 7 days. ## Scenario B (S
Первичный источник: France24
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