Золото продолжает снижаться, поскольку нападения Ирана угрожают прекращению огня на Ближнем Востоке

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile attacks on Israel trigger retaliatory strikes from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalates tensions further, leading to increased military spending in the region and a potential expansion of conflict into neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia or Lebanon. **Confirmation indicators:** Israel launches airstrikes against Iranian targets within 24-72 hours, followed by media reports of increased military activity in the region from multiple nations. **Time horizon:** 1 week to 2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current geopolitical situation remains relatively stable with limited escalation. Negotiations for a ceasefire continue, and international pressure on both sides intensifies. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-led mediation effort is successful in securing a ceasefire agreement w

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile attacks on Israel trigger retaliatory strikes from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalates tensions further, leading to increased military spending in the region and a potential expansion of conflict into neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia or Lebanon. **Confirmation indicators:** Israel launches airstrikes against Iranian targets within 24-72 hours, followed by media reports of increased military activity in the region from multiple nations. **Time horizon:** 1 week to 2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current geopolitical situation remains relatively stable with limited escalation. Negotiations for a ceasefire continue, and international pressure on both sides intensifies. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-led mediation effort is successful in securing a ceasefire agreement w

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's missile attacks on Israel trigger retaliatory strikes from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalates tensions further, leading to increased military spending in the region and a potential expansion of conflict into neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia or Lebanon. **Confirmation indicators:** Israel launches airstrikes against Iranian targets within 24-72 hours, followed by media reports of increased military activity in the region from multiple nations. **Time horizon:** 1 week to 2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current geopolitical situation remains relatively stable with limited escalation. Negotiations for a ceasefire continue, and international pressure on both sides intensifies. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-led mediation effort is successful in securing a ceasefire agreement w