Ракеты и переговоры: Иран спустя 100 дней после начала войны с США и … — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches a series of increasingly provocative missile tests targeting US and Israeli military assets in the Persian Gulf, escalating tensions. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian military facilities. The United States deploys additional troops to the region, prompting fears of a wider conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** Negotiations continue at a slow pace, with both sides making incremental concessions and f

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to the region.

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches a series of increasingly provocative missile tests targeting US and Israeli military assets in the Persian Gulf, escalating tensions. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian military facilities. The United States deploys additional troops to the region, prompting fears of a wider conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** Negotiations continue at a slow pace, with both sides making incremental concessions and f

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to the region.

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches a series of increasingly provocative missile tests targeting US and Israeli military assets in the Persian Gulf, escalating tensions. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian military facilities. The United States deploys additional troops to the region, prompting fears of a wider conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** Negotiations continue at a slow pace, with both sides making incremental concessions and f

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to the region.

Ракеты и переговоры: Иран спустя 100 дней после начала войны с США и Израилем

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation