Trung Quốc triển khai chiến dịch thực thi pháp luật gần Đài Loan, khu vực căng Thẳng

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China initiates increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. This escalates tensions with the US and Japan, who respond with diplomatic pressure and potential military support for Taiwan. China then imposes sanctions on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Increased Chinese military activity in the South China Sea, such as increased deployments of naval vessels or air force patrols near Taiwan. * Public statements from Chinese officials threatening to use force against Taiwan. * US government announcements of increased military presence and support for Taiwan. * Economic sanctions imposed by China on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Time Horizon:** Within 30-60 days, escalating tensions could lead to a direct military

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China initiates increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. This escalates tensions with the US and Japan, who respond with diplomatic pressure and potential military support for Taiwan. China then imposes sanctions on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Increased Chinese military activity in the South China Sea, such as increased deployments of naval vessels or air force patrols near Taiwan. * Public statements from Chinese officials threatening to use force against Taiwan. * US government announcements of increased military presence and support for Taiwan. * Economic sanctions imposed by China on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Time Horizon:** Within 30-60 days, escalating tensions could lead to a direct military

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China initiates increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. This escalates tensions with the US and Japan, who respond with diplomatic pressure and potential military support for Taiwan. China then imposes sanctions on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Increased Chinese military activity in the South China Sea, such as increased deployments of naval vessels or air force patrols near Taiwan. * Public statements from Chinese officials threatening to use force against Taiwan. * US government announcements of increased military presence and support for Taiwan. * Economic sanctions imposed by China on Taiwanese businesses and individuals. * **Time Horizon:** Within 30-60 days, escalating tensions could lead to a direct military