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## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** This scenario sees an escalation in tensions between Israel and Palestine. **Confirmation indicators:** Palestinian resistance groups announce increased attacks on Israeli settlements, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel within a week. **Time horizon:** 10-14 days. This escalation could trigger increased regional instability, potentially leading to wider conflict involvement from neighboring countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo remains in place for the foreseeable future. **Confirmation indicators:** The Israeli government and Palestinian Authority continue negotiations with limited progress. **Time horizon:** 1 month. This scenario suggests a continued stalemate, with potential for minor diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed violence. **Scenario C (De-escalation): 12%** A de-escalation occurs as

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** This scenario sees an escalation in tensions between Israel and Palestine. **Confirmation indicators:** Palestinian resistance groups announce increased attacks on Israeli settlements, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel within a week. **Time horizon:** 10-14 days. This escalation could trigger increased regional instability, potentially leading to wider conflict involvement from neighboring countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo remains in place for the foreseeable future. **Confirmation indicators:** The Israeli government and Palestinian Authority continue negotiations with limited progress. **Time horizon:** 1 month. This scenario suggests a continued stalemate, with potential for minor diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed violence. **Scenario C (De-escalation): 12%** A de-escalation occurs as

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** This scenario sees an escalation in tensions between Israel and Palestine. **Confirmation indicators:** Palestinian resistance groups announce increased attacks on Israeli settlements, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel within a week. **Time horizon:** 10-14 days. This escalation could trigger increased regional instability, potentially leading to wider conflict involvement from neighboring countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo remains in place for the foreseeable future. **Confirmation indicators:** The Israeli government and Palestinian Authority continue negotiations with limited progress. **Time horizon:** 1 month. This scenario suggests a continued stalemate, with potential for minor diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed violence. **Scenario C (De-escalation): 12%** A de-escalation occurs as