Достижения 100-дневной войны с Ираном неоспоримы

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-led coalition expands military presence in Persian Gulf; Iran launches retaliatory attacks on US forces and strategic infrastructure in the region. Escalation escalates into direct conflict between Iran and a coalition led by the US, with proxy conflicts spreading across the Middle East. * Increased activity of US-led coalition naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. * Iranian military statements indicating imminent retaliatory action against US interests. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Tensions remain high, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to de-escalate the situation. Iran continues to assert its grievances and demands for sanctions relief while the US maintains a hardline stance. * Continued communication between US and Iranian

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-led coalition expands military presence in Persian Gulf; Iran launches retaliatory attacks on US forces and strategic infrastructure in the region. Escalation escalates into direct conflict between Iran and a coalition led by the US, with proxy conflicts spreading across the Middle East. * Increased activity of US-led coalition naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. * Iranian military statements indicating imminent retaliatory action against US interests. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Tensions remain high, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to de-escalate the situation. Iran continues to assert its grievances and demands for sanctions relief while the US maintains a hardline stance. * Continued communication between US and Iranian

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-led coalition expands military presence in Persian Gulf; Iran launches retaliatory attacks on US forces and strategic infrastructure in the region. Escalation escalates into direct conflict between Iran and a coalition led by the US, with proxy conflicts spreading across the Middle East. * Increased activity of US-led coalition naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. * Iranian military statements indicating imminent retaliatory action against US interests. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Tensions remain high, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to de-escalate the situation. Iran continues to assert its grievances and demands for sanctions relief while the US maintains a hardline stance. * Continued communication between US and Iranian