Иран после 100 дней войны: триумф выживания

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's military gains in the war are seen as insufficient to secure its governing system. Increased pressure from regional allies and international sanctions lead to a series of escalating actions by Iran, including increased missile strikes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This escalates tensions further, leading to a direct confrontation between Iranian forces and US-led coalition troops within the region. * Iran launches direct attacks against Israeli or Saudi Arabian military targets with significant casualties. * International sanctions are significantly tightened by major powers, including economic embargoes on key Iranian sectors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The war continues at a stalemate with limited territorial gains for either side. I

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's military gains in the war are seen as insufficient to secure its governing system. Increased pressure from regional allies and international sanctions lead to a series of escalating actions by Iran, including increased missile strikes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This escalates tensions further, leading to a direct confrontation between Iranian forces and US-led coalition troops within the region. * Iran launches direct attacks against Israeli or Saudi Arabian military targets with significant casualties. * International sanctions are significantly tightened by major powers, including economic embargoes on key Iranian sectors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The war continues at a stalemate with limited territorial gains for either side. I

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's military gains in the war are seen as insufficient to secure its governing system. Increased pressure from regional allies and international sanctions lead to a series of escalating actions by Iran, including increased missile strikes on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This escalates tensions further, leading to a direct confrontation between Iranian forces and US-led coalition troops within the region. * Iran launches direct attacks against Israeli or Saudi Arabian military targets with significant casualties. * International sanctions are significantly tightened by major powers, including economic embargoes on key Iranian sectors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The war continues at a stalemate with limited territorial gains for either side. I