Соперничество США и Китая обнажается контрактом на углубление реки в Аргентине

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's state-owned enterprise, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), will publicly criticize the Argentine contract award, citing concerns about its impact on US-China trade relations in Latin America. This criticism escalates into a diplomatic standoff, with both countries issuing statements and potentially imposing sanctions on each other’s businesses operating in their respective territories. * **Confirmation indicators:** CNOOC publishes public statements criticizing the contract, followed by formal diplomatic protests from the US or China to Argentina's government. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Argentine government maintains its stance on the contract award, citing economic benefits and national interests. The US continues to engage with Latin Ame

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's state-owned enterprise, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), will publicly criticize the Argentine contract award, citing concerns about its impact on US-China trade relations in Latin America. This criticism escalates into a diplomatic standoff, with both countries issuing statements and potentially imposing sanctions on each other’s businesses operating in their respective territories. * **Confirmation indicators:** CNOOC publishes public statements criticizing the contract, followed by formal diplomatic protests from the US or China to Argentina's government. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Argentine government maintains its stance on the contract award, citing economic benefits and national interests. The US continues to engage with Latin Ame

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's state-owned enterprise, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), will publicly criticize the Argentine contract award, citing concerns about its impact on US-China trade relations in Latin America. This criticism escalates into a diplomatic standoff, with both countries issuing statements and potentially imposing sanctions on each other’s businesses operating in their respective territories. * **Confirmation indicators:** CNOOC publishes public statements criticizing the contract, followed by formal diplomatic protests from the US or China to Argentina's government. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Argentine government maintains its stance on the contract award, citing economic benefits and national interests. The US continues to engage with Latin Ame