Стармер принимает Зеленского, Макрона и Мерца, поскольку в результате российских ударов на Украине погибли трое

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Zelenskyy's visit to London triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. Merz publicly criticizes Macron's perceived lack of resolve, escalating rhetoric towards Russia. Russia retaliates with increased strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, targeting energy facilities and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased military presence at the UK-Ukraine border; 2) Public statements from Russian officials directly threatening further escalation. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The meeting between Starmer, Zelenskyy, and Merz remains a diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions. The focus shifts towards humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. Russia maintains its stance on the conflict but avoids significant escalation. * **Confir

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Zelenskyy's visit to London triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. Merz publicly criticizes Macron's perceived lack of resolve, escalating rhetoric towards Russia. Russia retaliates with increased strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, targeting energy facilities and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased military presence at the UK-Ukraine border; 2) Public statements from Russian officials directly threatening further escalation. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The meeting between Starmer, Zelenskyy, and Merz remains a diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions. The focus shifts towards humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. Russia maintains its stance on the conflict but avoids significant escalation. * **Confir

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Zelenskyy's visit to London triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. Merz publicly criticizes Macron's perceived lack of resolve, escalating rhetoric towards Russia. Russia retaliates with increased strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, targeting energy facilities and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased military presence at the UK-Ukraine border; 2) Public statements from Russian officials directly threatening further escalation. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The meeting between Starmer, Zelenskyy, and Merz remains a diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions. The focus shifts towards humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. Russia maintains its stance on the conflict but avoids significant escalation. * **Confir