Трамп призвал к новым «хирургическим» ударам по «Хезболле»
Трамп призывает к большему количеству «хирургических» ударов по «Хезболле» Президент США Дональд Трамп призвал к большему количеству «хирургических» атак на «Хезболлу» в Ливане, в то же время заявляя, что он «очень близок» к соглашению с Ираном. Комментарии, сделанные в программе NBC «Meet the Press» в интервью, записанном в пятницу, но транслировавшемся в воскресенье, были истолкованы как молчаливое благословение израильских ударов по южным пригородам Бейрута. "Я хотел бы, чтобы Ливан жил в лучшей жизни. Я хотел бы видеть более хирургическое нападение на Хезболлу. Я думаю, что оно должно быть более хирургическим", - сказал Трамп.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements embolden Israel to increase military activity against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel launches further strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure. This escalates tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially leading to a larger-scale conflict involving Lebanese militias and regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Israeli airstrikes on targets within Lebanon, including increased military presence near the border with Syria. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israeli and Iranian leadership. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements are met with cautious response, delaying a decisive action from either Israel or Hezbollah. The US continues diplomatic efforts for a
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements embolden Israel to increase military activity against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel launches further strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure. This escalates tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially leading to a larger-scale conflict involving Lebanese militias and regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Israeli airstrikes on targets within Lebanon, including increased military presence near the border with Syria. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israeli and Iranian leadership. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements are met with cautious response, delaying a decisive action from either Israel or Hezbollah. The US continues diplomatic efforts for a
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements embolden Israel to increase military activity against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel launches further strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure. This escalates tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially leading to a larger-scale conflict involving Lebanese militias and regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Israeli airstrikes on targets within Lebanon, including increased military presence near the border with Syria. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israeli and Iranian leadership. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements are met with cautious response, delaying a decisive action from either Israel or Hezbollah. The US continues diplomatic efforts for a
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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