Иран даст «болезненный ответ» Израилю на удары по Бейруту
Иран даст «болезненный ответ» Израилю на удары по Бейруту Иран «даст решительный и болезненный ответ» на бомбардировки Израилем Бейрута, заявил в воскресенье иранский политик. «Эти бешеные собаки должны быть наказаны и возвращены на место», — написал на X Эбрагим Резаи, депутат и представитель комиссии по внешней политике. «Посмотрите сегодня вечером на небо над оккупированными землями», — сказал он. Резаи отвечал на израильские удары по южным пригородам Бейрута. Он был убит в 2008 году и был убит в 1997 году. Он сказал, что хочет и хочет, чтобы это произошло. امشب آسمان سرزمینهای شغالی را ببینید. — ابراهیم رضایی (@EbrahimRezaei14) 7 июня 2026 г.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * **Time horizon:** Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * **Time horizon:** Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * **Time horizon:** Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?
Тарифы и подписки →